Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | ARK +110 TENN -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -1.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -3.4 (+7.6) | 150.3 (+10.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.0 (+9.0) | 153.2 (+7.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.3 (+7.7) | 152.8 (+8.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -3.4 (+7.6) | 150.2 (+10.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2025 | TENN 76 – 52 ARK |
| Feb 15, 2024 | TENN 92 – 63 ARK |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TENN 75 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 5, 2022 | TENN 78 – 74 ARK |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARK 58 – 48 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#27) | 18.2 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#25) | 2.35 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.65 (#18) | 3.83 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#44) | 0.570 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 43.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 46.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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