Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | TENN -250 ARK +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -8.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -6.7 (+11.3) | 133.7 (-1.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -7.6 (+10.4) | 131.0 (+1.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -7.0 (+11.0) | 136.5 (-4.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -7.5 (+10.5) | 135.2 (-3.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 TENN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TENN 76 – 52 ARK |
| Feb 15, 2024 | TENN 92 – 63 ARK |
| Mar 5, 2022 | TENN 78 – 74 ARK |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARK 58 – 48 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#3) | 14.6 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#19) | 2.03 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#16) | 2.54 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#14) | 0.602 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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