Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TENN -900 ARK +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +24 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -11.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -12.7 (+11.3) | 135.8 (-7.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -13.7 (+10.3) | 135.3 (-7.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -13.7 (+10.3) | 137.2 (-9.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -12.5 (+11.5) | 137.0 (-9.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 TENN |
| Feb 15, 2024 | TENN 92 – 63 ARK |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TENN 75 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 5, 2022 | TENN 78 – 74 ARK |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARK 58 – 48 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 22.9 (#3) | 15.3 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.08 (#1) | 2.29 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.05 (#1) | 3.05 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#9) | 0.565 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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