Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +10 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -2.2 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-38.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -0.3 (+9.7) | 145.2 (-39.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -0.6 (+9.4) | 141.5 (-35.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -0.2 (+10.2) | 145.6 (-39.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -0.9 (+9.1) | 144.9 (-38.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 TENN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TENN 76 – 52 ARK |
| Feb 15, 2024 | TENN 92 – 63 ARK |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TENN 75 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 5, 2022 | TENN 78 – 74 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 17-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#21) | 18.3 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#32) | 3.03 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#30) | 3.71 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#36) | 0.632 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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