Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ARK +333 TENN -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +29 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -11.5 (-17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -9.5 (-19.5) | 149.0 (+6.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -10.7 (-18.3) | 151.9 (+3.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -9.6 (-19.4) | 151.4 (+3.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -9.6 (-19.4) | 149.3 (+5.7) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 TENN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TENN 76 – 52 ARK |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TENN 75 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 5, 2022 | TENN 78 – 74 ARK |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARK 58 – 48 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#129) | 17.7 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#98) | 2.80 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#103) | 3.53 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#107) | 0.642 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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