Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -6.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -6.3 (-2.3) | 140.4 (+11.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -6.4 (-2.4) | 139.5 (+12.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -6.0 (-2.0) | 142.1 (+9.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -6.2 (-2.2) | 140.9 (+11.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 TENN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TENN 76 – 52 ARK |
| Feb 15, 2024 | TENN 92 – 63 ARK |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TENN 75 – 57 ARK |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARK 58 – 48 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 17-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#9) | 14.2 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#13) | 2.69 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#13) | 3.24 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#11) | 0.607 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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