Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -170 PRST +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +6 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -8.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+37.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -5.3 (-11.3) | 141.4 (+38.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -4.8 (-10.8) | 141.4 (+38.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -5.1 (-11.1) | 140.3 (+39.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -5.0 (-11.0) | 141.1 (+38.9) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | PRST 85 – 78 IDST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | PRST 88 – 65 IDST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | IDST 82 – 74 PRST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PRST 76 – 59 IDST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | IDST 68 – 65 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#118) | -0.5 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#155) | 0.02 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#149) | 0.11 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#184) | 0.515 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 37.4% |
Game Analysis
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