Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -130 PRST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -2.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.9 (+7.1) | 139.5 (+16.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -0.7 (+7.3) | 139.3 (+16.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.8 (+7.2) | 139.8 (+16.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.9 (+7.1) | 140.3 (+15.7) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | PRST 85 – 78 IDST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | PRST 88 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRST 93 – 87 IDST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PRST 76 – 59 IDST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | IDST 68 – 65 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#211) | -1.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#267) | -0.29 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#247) | -0.14 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#301) | 0.476 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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