Betting Lines
| Spread | PRST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | PRST -130 IDST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | PRST -1.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -2.6 (+14.4) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -1.2 (+15.8) | 137.1 (-2.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRST -1.5 (+15.5) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -1.8 (+15.2) | 139.4 (-4.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | PRST 85 – 78 IDST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | PRST 88 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRST 93 – 87 IDST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | IDST 82 – 74 PRST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | IDST 68 – 65 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#212) | -1.1 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#203) | -1.15 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#191) | -1.20 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#229) | 0.432 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 40.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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