Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -175 PRST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -3.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -2.1 (+0.9) | 141.5 (-8.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.6 (+1.4) | 139.3 (-6.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -1.8 (+1.2) | 141.2 (-8.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -2.3 (+0.7) | 143.0 (-10.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | PRST 85 – 78 IDST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | PRST 88 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRST 93 – 87 IDST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | IDST 82 – 74 PRST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PRST 76 – 59 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#252) | -4.4 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#276) | 0.03 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#264) | -0.26 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#288) | 0.492 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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