Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MERC -278 FDU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MERC -10.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -6.9 (-13.9) | 131.4 (+9.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -7.8 (-14.8) | 127.5 (+13.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -7.9 (-14.9) | 129.9 (+11.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -7.9 (-14.9) | 132.1 (+8.9) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MERC 70 – 61 FDU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | FDU 55 – 52 MERC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | MERC 65 – 60 FDU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MERC 67 – 60 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-14 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#282) | -14.9 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#320) | -3.82 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#319) | -5.41 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#306) | 0.364 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.7% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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