Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MERC +140 FDU -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -0.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -1.1 (+6.1) | 142.3 (-17.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MERC -0.4 (+4.6) | 140.5 (-15.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | FDU -0.3 (+5.3) | 139.9 (-14.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -0.7 (+5.7) | 141.0 (-16.0) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MERC 70 – 61 FDU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | FDU 55 – 52 MERC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | FDU 74 – 67 MERC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MERC 67 – 60 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#339) | -8.6 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#314) | -1.60 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#321) | -2.00 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#314) | 0.433 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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