Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -142 MERC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +3 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -0.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -0.9 (+2.1) | 131.9 (-24.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -1.2 (+4.2) | 132.3 (-25.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -0.9 (+3.9) | 132.0 (-25.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -0.9 (+3.9) | 132.4 (-25.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MERC 70 – 61 FDU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | FDU 74 – 67 MERC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | MERC 65 – 60 FDU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MERC 67 – 60 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-15 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#325) | -7.4 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#349) | -1.61 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.00 (#347) | -2.14 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#349) | 0.436 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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