Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -225 MERC +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +7 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | FDU -6.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -3.5 (-10.5) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FDU -3.2 (-10.2) | 138.0 (-11.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | FDU -3.5 (-10.5) | 136.4 (-9.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -4.0 (-11.0) | 136.0 (-9.0) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MERC 70 – 61 FDU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | FDU 55 – 52 MERC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | FDU 74 – 67 MERC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | MERC 65 – 60 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-15 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#311) | -12.8 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#291) | -1.56 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#295) | -2.28 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#288) | 0.430 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 26.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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