Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MERC -180 FDU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -8.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -6.0 (+3.0) | 136.0 (-5.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MERC -5.4 (+3.6) | 132.2 (-1.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MERC -6.4 (+2.6) | 134.1 (-3.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -6.0 (+3.0) | 135.1 (-4.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | FDU 55 – 52 MERC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | FDU 74 – 67 MERC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | MERC 65 – 60 FDU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MERC 67 – 60 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-14 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#279) | -12.1 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#313) | -2.36 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#304) | -2.97 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#271) | 0.410 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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