Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | USU -5000 SJSU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +18 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | USU -23.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -18.8 (-0.8) | 143.5 (+30.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -19.7 (-1.7) | 143.6 (+30.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -18.2 (-0.2) | 144.2 (+29.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -20.1 (-2.1) | 146.5 (+27.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SJSU 69 – 64 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-10 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#28) | -3.5 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#29) | -0.67 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#40) | -0.73 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#18) | 0.478 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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