Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +210 USU -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | USU -4.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -4.5 (+9.5) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -1.9 (+6.9) | 144.9 (-11.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.7 (+6.7) | 144.6 (-11.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.8 (+7.8) | 141.2 (-8.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#117) | 11.2 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#93) | 2.05 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#95) | 2.66 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#90) | 0.611 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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