Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USU -2500 SJSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +48 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | USU -15.2 (+32.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -13.7 (+34.3) | 152.1 (+9.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -15.8 (+32.2) | 150.4 (+11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -13.1 (+34.9) | 152.0 (+10.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -13.5 (+34.5) | 153.2 (+8.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SJSU 69 – 64 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#48) | 0.1 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#21) | -0.18 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#27) | -0.30 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#24) | 0.472 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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