Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +300 USU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +7 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -10.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.5 (+4.5) | 146.6 (+16.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -10.1 (+3.1) | 148.2 (+14.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -9.3 (+2.3) | 149.7 (+13.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -9.4 (+2.4) | 147.8 (+15.2) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SJSU 69 – 64 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#189) | 13.4 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#242) | 3.92 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#230) | 5.13 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#232) | 0.650 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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