Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +400 USU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +20 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -11.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -13.0 (-7.0) | 143.3 (+16.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.4 (-8.6) | 143.7 (+16.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -11.9 (-8.1) | 143.8 (+16.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -12.8 (-7.2) | 145.7 (+14.3) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SJSU 69 – 64 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 1-12 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#233) | 11.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#261) | 2.67 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#254) | 2.77 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#271) | 0.624 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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