Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USU -1000 SJSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USU -18.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -16.7 (+4.3) | 151.8 (-8.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -14.7 (+6.3) | 150.0 (-7.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -15.3 (+5.7) | 151.9 (-8.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -16.1 (+4.9) | 152.8 (-9.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SJSU 69 – 64 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#27) | -1.4 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#5) | -0.56 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#10) | -0.58 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#3) | 0.460 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.