Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NEB -135 MSU +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +2 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -2.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -2.8 (-0.8) | 143.4 (-29.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -4.9 (-2.9) | 139.0 (-25.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -4.4 (-2.4) | 141.9 (-27.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -2.9 (-0.9) | 142.4 (-28.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | MSU 89 – 52 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2023 | NEB 77 – 70 MSU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | MSU 80 – 67 NEB |
| Jan 4, 2023 | MSU 74 – 56 NEB |
| Jan 6, 2022 | MSU 79 – 67 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#29) | 17.4 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.95 (#5) | 4.02 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.85 (#8) | 6.23 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#12) | 0.670 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.98 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 40.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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