Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NEB +155 MSU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -2.4 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.5 (-10.5) | 140.5 (+6.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -1.4 (-11.6) | 140.8 (+6.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.6 (-11.4) | 141.9 (+5.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -1.8 (-11.2) | 142.2 (+4.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | NEB 58 – 56 MSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MSU 89 – 52 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2023 | NEB 77 – 70 MSU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | MSU 74 – 56 NEB |
| Jan 6, 2022 | MSU 79 – 67 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#96) | 11.0 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#70) | 2.01 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#65) | 2.54 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#109) | 0.581 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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