Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | MSU -1400 NEB +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -21.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -16.7 (-4.7) | 156.2 (-10.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -15.8 (-3.8) | 156.6 (-10.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -16.0 (-4.0) | 153.2 (-7.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -17.4 (-5.4) | 154.2 (-8.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | NEB 58 – 56 MSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MSU 89 – 52 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2023 | NEB 77 – 70 MSU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | MSU 80 – 67 NEB |
| Jan 4, 2023 | MSU 74 – 56 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-12 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#20) | -2.6 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#2) | -0.83 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.50 (#5) | -0.54 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.699 (#1) | 0.450 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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