Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NEB +138 MSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -2.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -2.7 (+4.3) | 138.4 (+8.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -2.7 (+4.3) | 136.3 (+10.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -1.9 (+5.1) | 135.7 (+11.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -1.8 (+5.2) | 136.6 (+10.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | NEB 58 – 56 MSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MSU 89 – 52 NEB |
| Mar 1, 2023 | MSU 80 – 67 NEB |
| Jan 4, 2023 | MSU 74 – 56 NEB |
| Jan 6, 2022 | MSU 79 – 67 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 18-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#82) | 9.1 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#87) | -0.07 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#85) | 0.79 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#74) | 0.478 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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