Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Big Ten Conference · Pinnacle Bank Arena · December 10, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MSU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money NEB +138 / MSU -175
Model Predictions
Spread Total NEB win
Actual NEB +7 147 Won
Massey NEB -2.0 (+5.0)
Massey Totals 133.0 (+14.0)
Bradley-Terry 92%
Weighted B-T 90%
Efficiency Plus ML NEB -2.7 (+4.3) 136.3 (+10.7) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML NEB -1.9 (+5.1) 135.7 (+11.3) 64%
Baseline ML NEB -1.8 (+5.2) 136.6 (+10.4) 62%
Baseline Plus ML NEB -2.7 (+4.3) 138.4 (+8.6) 66%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 3, 2026 NEB 5856 MSU
Dec 7, 2024 MSU 8952 NEB
Mar 1, 2023 MSU 8067 NEB
Jan 4, 2023 MSU 7456 NEB
Jan 6, 2022 MSU 7967 NEB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NEB MSU
Overall 23-11 20-15
Conference 12-8 10-10
Home 18-1 14-4
Away 3-8 3-7
Neutral 2-2 3-4
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 77.7 72.9
Avg Pts Against 70.9 66.1
Massey 5.9 (#82) 9.1 (#48)
Bradley-Terry 1.21 (#87) -0.07 (#184)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.64 (#85) 0.79 (#133)
RPI 0.573 (#74) 0.478 (#207)
Shooting & Four Factors NEB MSU
FG% 44.0% 45.0%
3PT% 31.6% 27.5%
REB / G 41.0 37.5
OREB / G 12.1 11.2
AST / TO 1.46 1.53
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 49.3%
TOV% 15.5% 15.7%
ORB% 33.6% 30.4%
FT Rate 29.5% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.2% 43.2%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 19.7%
DRB% 71.2% 70.0%
Opp FT Rate 18.0% 24.8%

Game Analysis

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