Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
Big Ten Conference · Breslin Center · January 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MSU -7.5 Home covered
O/U 131.5 Under
Money MSU -300 / NEB +225
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSU win
Actual MSU +18 130 Won
Massey MSU -4.9 (+13.1)
Massey Totals 125.7 (+4.3)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 78%
Efficiency Plus ML MSU -4.6 (+13.4) 130.4 (-0.4) 74%
Baseline Tuned ML MSU -4.6 (+13.4) 129.9 (+0.1) 71%
Baseline ML MSU -5.0 (+13.0) 131.7 (-1.7) 71%
Baseline Plus ML MSU -4.4 (+13.6) 130.2 (-0.2) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 3, 2026 NEB 5856 MSU
Dec 7, 2024 MSU 8952 NEB
Dec 10, 2023 NEB 7770 MSU
Mar 1, 2023 MSU 8067 NEB
Jan 6, 2022 MSU 7967 NEB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSU NEB
Overall 21-13 16-16
Conference 11-8 9-11
Home 12-2 11-4
Away 4-7 4-9
Neutral 5-4 1-3
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.9 68.0
Avg Pts Against 67.9 69.9
Massey 6.9 (#77) 6.3 (#81)
Bradley-Terry 1.62 (#57) 1.14 (#79)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.05 (#61) 1.67 (#78)
RPI 0.585 (#49) 0.558 (#76)
Shooting & Four Factors MSU NEB
FG% 44.4% 44.2%
3PT% 38.0% 30.2%
REB / G 37.5 38.7
OREB / G 9.6 11.2
AST / TO 1.48 1.04
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 49.8%
TOV% 16.4% 19.7%
ORB% 28.0% 32.0%
FT Rate 19.1% 17.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.5% 47.4%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 19.1%
DRB% 75.3% 71.8%
Opp FT Rate 19.0% 11.9%

Game Analysis

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