Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -300 NEB +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -4.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -4.4 (+13.6) | 130.2 (-0.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -4.6 (+13.4) | 130.4 (-0.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -4.6 (+13.4) | 129.9 (+0.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -5.0 (+13.0) | 131.7 (-1.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | NEB 58 – 56 MSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MSU 89 – 52 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2023 | NEB 77 – 70 MSU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | MSU 80 – 67 NEB |
| Jan 6, 2022 | MSU 79 – 67 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#77) | 6.3 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#57) | 1.14 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#61) | 1.67 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#49) | 0.558 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 11.9% |
Game Analysis
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