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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–5 on winners spread MAE 8.1 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Bradley @ Belmont	+9.7	150.5	80%	78–88	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Queens University	+3.4	153.7	66%	89–91	✓
Bellarmine @ West Georgia	+0.2	149.4	55%	85–87	✓
Indiana State @ Northern Iowa	+11.3	130.7	86%	66–75	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside	-8.2	141.1	29%	88–45	✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay	+14.5	150.8	88%	83–102	✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State	-1.4	143.3	44%	91–85	✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian	+2.5	137.2	64%	79–64	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State	+7.1	147.1	78%	59–68	✓
Murray State @ UIC	-8.2	151.6	26%	81–77	✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana State	+0.9	148.6	58%	75–89	✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho State	+11.8	144.4	88%	84–97	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Fullerton	+0.7	157.5	52%	84–95	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly	-9.0	158.2	20%	65–67	✗
New Mexico State @ Florida International	-0.1	149.5	47%	74–89	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Merrimack	+5.3	132.1	71%	65–75	✓
Sacred Heart @ Niagara	-4.9	133.8	34%	61–64	✗
Fairfield @ Canisius	-4.1	132.0	32%	81–85	✗
Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky	+1.1	155.8	55%	91–102	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.