Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | CAN +225 FAIR -278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -4.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -5.0 (+9.0) | 133.3 (+32.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -4.1 (+8.1) | 132.0 (+34.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -4.8 (+8.8) | 133.1 (+32.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -5.3 (+9.3) | 132.9 (+33.1) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
| Feb 26, 2023 | CAN 64 – 51 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -14.9 (#348) | -6.3 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#281) | -0.67 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#294) | -1.09 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#271) | 0.466 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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