Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -400 CAN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -7.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -7.3 (+4.7) | 143.8 (-7.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -6.4 (+5.6) | 143.6 (-7.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -6.6 (+5.4) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -6.2 (+5.8) | 142.2 (-6.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
| Feb 26, 2023 | CAN 64 – 51 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#170) | -5.0 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#186) | -0.91 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#189) | -1.11 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#147) | 0.479 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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