Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -600 CAN +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +6 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -11.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -9.2 (-3.2) | 133.7 (-17.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -9.5 (-3.5) | 135.1 (-19.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -9.6 (-3.6) | 135.7 (-19.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -9.8 (-3.8) | 134.0 (-18.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
| Feb 26, 2023 | CAN 64 – 51 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 62.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#253) | -14.5 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#236) | -1.50 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#237) | -2.05 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#216) | 0.439 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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