Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | CAN -125 FAIR +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +13 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -2.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -0.3 (+12.7) | 139.5 (-24.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -0.0 (+13.0) | 137.0 (-22.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -0.8 (+12.2) | 137.8 (-22.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -0.4 (+12.6) | 140.5 (-25.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#267) | -4.2 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#308) | -1.07 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#293) | -1.19 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#275) | 0.467 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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