Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | CAN -133 FAIR +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +25 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | CAN -5.7 (-30.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -3.8 (-28.8) | 147.0 (+4.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -3.1 (-28.1) | 148.9 (+2.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -3.1 (-28.1) | 146.4 (+4.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -3.4 (-28.4) | 147.5 (+3.5) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Feb 26, 2023 | CAN 64 – 51 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#170) | -2.0 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#195) | -0.33 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#183) | -0.69 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#172) | 0.475 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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