Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -550 CAN +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +11 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -10.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -7.2 (-18.2) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -7.7 (-18.7) | 141.2 (+3.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -7.6 (-18.6) | 141.3 (+3.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -7.2 (-18.2) | 140.6 (+4.4) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
| Feb 26, 2023 | CAN 64 – 51 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-6 | 1-12 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 78.6 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#320) | -16.0 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#262) | -3.22 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#291) | -3.72 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#259) | 0.368 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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