Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -148 UNCO +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -3.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -1.7 (+12.3) | 153.5 (+10.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -0.9 (+13.1) | 148.3 (+15.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -0.9 (+13.1) | 148.6 (+15.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -1.3 (+12.7) | 147.2 (+16.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCO 73 – 70 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#136) | 2.6 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#212) | 1.15 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#199) | 1.56 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#189) | 0.538 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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