Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UNCO -270 MTST +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -5.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -5.5 (+1.5) | 145.6 (-6.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -4.8 (+2.2) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -5.9 (+1.1) | 147.2 (-8.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -5.6 (+1.4) | 145.9 (-6.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCO 73 – 70 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#141) | -1.4 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#134) | -0.84 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#121) | -0.68 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#158) | 0.455 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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