Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UNCO -148 MTST +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -1.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -1.0 (-6.0) | 147.8 (-6.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -1.5 (-6.5) | 147.9 (-6.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -0.5 (-5.5) | 150.5 (-9.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -0.2 (-5.2) | 148.7 (-7.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCO 73 – 70 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#160) | 2.1 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#188) | -0.10 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#175) | 0.09 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#206) | 0.491 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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