Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -120 UNCO +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +1 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -1.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -0.4 (-1.4) | 151.8 (+13.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -0.7 (-1.7) | 151.7 (+13.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -0.8 (-0.2) | 153.2 (+11.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -0.5 (-0.5) | 152.8 (+12.2) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCO 73 – 70 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#176) | 1.5 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#260) | 0.57 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#216) | 0.68 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#289) | 0.509 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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