Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UNCO -300 MTST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -5.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -4.7 (-1.7) | 155.5 (-12.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -3.9 (-0.9) | 151.9 (-8.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -4.6 (-1.6) | 156.7 (-13.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -4.6 (-1.6) | 158.3 (-15.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#190) | -4.1 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#170) | -0.51 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#170) | -0.64 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#175) | 0.461 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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