Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UNCO -230 MTST +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +27 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -2.9 (+24.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -3.2 (+23.8) | 144.6 (-27.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -2.7 (+24.3) | 143.2 (-26.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -2.3 (+24.7) | 145.3 (-28.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -2.9 (+24.1) | 146.1 (-29.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCO 73 – 70 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#125) | -0.5 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#119) | -0.63 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#120) | -0.50 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#103) | 0.478 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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