Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +154 UCSB -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +11 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -0.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.8 (+10.2) | 156.1 (+22.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -0.7 (+11.7) | 155.4 (+23.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -0.7 (+10.3) | 157.5 (+21.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -0.1 (+10.9) | 157.3 (+21.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UCSB 83 – 69 CSUF |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSB 86 – 56 CSUF |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCSB 83 – 75 CSUF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUF 79 – 70 UCSB |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CSUF 73 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#212) | 0.8 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#229) | 0.45 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#194) | 0.64 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#197) | 0.506 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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