Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +320 UCSB -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -7.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -6.2 (-1.8) | 133.7 (+24.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -6.6 (-1.4) | 132.0 (+26.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -6.5 (-1.5) | 134.7 (+23.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -6.7 (-1.3) | 135.3 (+22.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UCSB 83 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CSUF 95 – 84 UCSB |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSB 86 – 56 CSUF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUF 79 – 70 UCSB |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CSUF 73 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 11-9 |
| Home | 4-11 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#320) | 0.9 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#306) | 0.21 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#303) | -0.09 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#289) | 0.470 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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