Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +105 UCSB -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -0.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.7 (+8.3) | 138.8 (+10.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -0.1 (+9.1) | 137.5 (+11.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -1.0 (+8.0) | 137.9 (+11.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -0.8 (+8.2) | 139.3 (+9.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UCSB 83 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CSUF 95 – 84 UCSB |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSB 86 – 56 CSUF |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCSB 83 – 75 CSUF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CSUF 73 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#239) | -1.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#224) | -0.23 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#235) | -0.24 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#206) | 0.483 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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