Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -410 CSUF +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +14 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -7.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -8.8 (+5.2) | 150.8 (+1.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -6.3 (+7.7) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -6.4 (+7.6) | 152.0 (-0.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -5.1 (+8.9) | 153.4 (-1.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | CSUF 95 – 84 UCSB |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSB 86 – 56 CSUF |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCSB 83 – 75 CSUF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUF 79 – 70 UCSB |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CSUF 73 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#136) | -2.0 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#137) | -0.33 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#139) | -0.18 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#134) | 0.494 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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