Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -2500 CSUF +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +30 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -17.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -17.2 (+12.8) | 140.4 (+1.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -13.2 (+16.8) | 140.1 (+1.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -15.0 (+15.0) | 140.3 (+1.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -16.9 (+13.1) | 141.8 (+0.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UCSB 83 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CSUF 95 – 84 UCSB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCSB 83 – 75 CSUF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUF 79 – 70 UCSB |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CSUF 73 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 1-19 |
| Home | 12-5 | 4-11 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#134) | -12.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#147) | -1.97 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#156) | -2.41 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#219) | 0.414 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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