Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -850 EIU +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -10.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -7.5 (+1.5) | 144.4 (-17.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -9.5 (-0.5) | 142.8 (-15.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -7.1 (+1.9) | 147.1 (-20.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -6.5 (+2.5) | 146.7 (-19.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SEMO 77 – 59 EIU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | EIU 73 – 58 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2024 | SEMO 79 – 72 EIU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | EIU 75 – 57 SEMO |
| Feb 17, 2023 | SEMO 78 – 64 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#215) | -9.7 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#240) | -1.64 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#236) | -2.22 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#235) | 0.435 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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