Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | EIU +164 SEMO -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +18 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -1.4 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -1.8 (-16.2) | 132.4 (+3.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -2.9 (-15.1) | 133.1 (+2.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -1.8 (-16.2) | 134.3 (+1.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -1.4 (-16.6) | 132.1 (+3.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | SEMO 68 – 59 EIU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | EIU 73 – 58 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2024 | SEMO 79 – 72 EIU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | EIU 75 – 57 SEMO |
| Feb 17, 2023 | SEMO 78 – 64 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EIU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#308) | -5.3 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#299) | -0.94 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#311) | -1.34 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#308) | 0.472 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EIU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 37.5% |
Game Analysis
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