Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | EIU +190 SEMO -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EIU +15 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -6.2 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -4.0 (+19.0) | 131.7 (-0.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -5.5 (+20.5) | 130.7 (+0.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -5.2 (+20.2) | 132.3 (-1.3) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -4.9 (+19.9) | 133.2 (-2.2) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SEMO 77 – 59 EIU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | SEMO 68 – 59 EIU |
| Dec 20, 2024 | SEMO 79 – 72 EIU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | EIU 75 – 57 SEMO |
| Feb 17, 2023 | SEMO 78 – 64 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EIU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#328) | -1.3 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#325) | -0.21 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#329) | -0.43 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#323) | 0.524 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EIU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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