Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -210 EIU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -8.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -4.7 (+2.3) | 138.6 (+12.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -4.5 (+2.5) | 142.5 (+8.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -4.4 (+2.6) | 141.1 (+9.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -4.8 (+2.2) | 137.6 (+13.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SEMO 77 – 59 EIU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | SEMO 68 – 59 EIU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | EIU 73 – 58 SEMO |
| Feb 16, 2024 | EIU 75 – 57 SEMO |
| Feb 17, 2023 | SEMO 78 – 64 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#255) | -9.3 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#282) | -1.64 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#258) | -1.92 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#260) | 0.421 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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