Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -185 BRAD +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -10.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -9.0 (+1.0) | 152.7 (+13.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -8.0 (+2.0) | 152.8 (+13.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -9.7 (+0.3) | 150.5 (+15.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -9.1 (+0.9) | 152.0 (+14.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | BRAD 95 – 84 BEL |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BEL 80 – 77 BRAD |
| Jan 22, 2025 | BRAD 89 – 77 BEL |
| Jan 20, 2024 | BRAD 95 – 72 BEL |
| Jan 21, 2023 | BEL 78 – 76 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-6 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 11-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#66) | 3.3 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#65) | 0.74 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#67) | 0.80 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#89) | 0.517 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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