Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD +105 BEL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +11 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -4.1 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -2.4 (+13.4) | 150.4 (+28.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -1.3 (+12.3) | 149.0 (+30.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -2.9 (+13.9) | 148.7 (+30.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -2.5 (+13.5) | 150.6 (+28.4) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | BEL 88 – 78 BRAD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BEL 80 – 77 BRAD |
| Jan 22, 2025 | BRAD 89 – 77 BEL |
| Jan 20, 2024 | BRAD 95 – 72 BEL |
| Jan 21, 2023 | BEL 78 – 76 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 26-6 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#126) | 9.5 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#133) | 1.80 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#139) | 2.59 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#104) | 0.583 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 61.1% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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